Voter turnout looks good in Snohomish County, last minute money being spent.

As of yesterday, 71,598 voters, 18.9% of Snohomish County voters have already returned their ballots. The article also states that King County is averaging a little lower than expected, with 15.29% returned so far. “I think it is reflective of the excitement of this particular election,” said Snohomish County Auditor Carolyn Weikel. While the Senate race is state-wide, we'll have to watch and see if this strong trend from our home county continues across the rest of the state. Important of note: If past trends hold, Dino Rossi will need a very strong turnout on the east side of the state to offset what will most certainly be a strong advantage for Senator Murray in King County. Both Patty Murray and Dino Rossi carried Snohomish County in their respective 1994 races, Murray with 54.89% and Rossi with 49.88%.

As promised, Michelle Obama came to town on Monday to support Senator Murray. First Lady Michelle spoke at the Bellevue Hyatt to aprpoximately 1400 people who paid between $75-175 per person to attend. Later, she spoke at the home of Jeff Brotman, to 100 people who paid $7,500 each to attend. While we would have loved to attend and offer a first hand account of the private fundraiser, we we're not invited.

On the same day First lady Michelle came to town, Senator John McCain, someone who is notable for his stance against Federal earmarks, held a conference call with reporters in support of Mr. Rossi. McCain was on the call to support Rossi's stance that Senator Murray's "pork barrel" politics are not good for the taxpayer, with McCain calling Federal earmarks a "corrupt practice". Directed at Senator Murray, Rossi has stated in the past "I just don't think this is the year to be talking about port. What part of broke don't you understand"?

Certainly, one group that isn't broke is the independent expenditure groups that are participating in the Rossi-Murray Senate race. A recent Seattle Times article notes that there has been $12M in independent spending in this race. This is the 3rd highest Senate race for independent expenditures in this election cycle, with only Colorado and Pennsylvania being higher. Both the Democratic and Republican National Senatorial Committees have spent nearly $3M each in this hotly contested race. As we come closer to election day, don't expect the ads to get any nicer.

9 days to go...The money continues to pour in!

As part of a three state West-coast campaign swing, President Barack Obama came to town last Thursday to raise money for Patty Murray. CNN notes that the focus of the campaign swing is to "prop up embattled Senate incumbents" in Washington, California, and Nevada. This is in addition to a visit from former President Clinton a few days prior. The event drew a large number of Patty Murray supporters, as well as a few protestors (and Dino Rossi supporters, as the President spoke to roughly 10,000 at the University of Washington basketball arena. The articles are unclear on how much money Ms. Murray was expected to raise, but suffice it so say it is safely in the tens of thousands of dollars.

First Lady Michelle Obama will also be coming to Bellevue today to campaign for Patty Murray. The Murray campaign also released that Jill Biden, wife of Vice-President Joe Biden, will soon be coming to town to campaign for Murray. These continued visits by members of the Washington D.C. Democratic establishment seems to play right into the campaign message of Dino Rossi, that being Senator Murray represents Washington D.C and not Washington State. Mr. Rossi has released a new YouTube video to this effect, titled "Washington D.C insiders vs. the Real Washington"

There has also been some good news for the Dino Rossi camp in the last few days. Mr. Rossi picked up the endorsement of The Council of Metropolitan Police and Sheriffs. COMPAS represents the two largest law enforcement agencies in Washington State, the Seattle Police Department and the King County Sheriffs Department. They also represent the Seattle Police Management Association.

Additionally, there is news that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce made a $500,000 television buy last Friday. While it is not clear who this television buy will be used to support or oppose, it is highly likely that it will be in Mr. Rossi's favor. The Chamber is strongly against financial reform legislation, health care reform, and "cap and trade", all positions shared by Mr. Rossi. Stay tuned to your television sets in the next 9 days to see sme hard hitting campaign commercials as the election comes to a close.

Senate debates are completed, polls tightening! Murray brings in the "big guns"

Its been a busy week for Patty Murray and Dino Rossi. Upon the completion of their final debate last Sunday, Bill Clinton flew into Paine Field to rally the Democratic troops for Murray. Murray will also be welcoming President Obama and First Lady Michelle to campaign on her behalf in the next few weeks. Mr. Rossi vowed during the debate to continue traveling across meeting with the voters, slamming Murray for the visits from Washington DC bigwigs.

We had the opportunity to watch the debate last Sunday, and it was clear that Mr. Rossi came prepared to attack. This was noticeably absent on their first debate in Spokane. While Ms. Murray was clearly more calm and poised, Mr. Rossi was firing on all cylinders, attacking Murray as a career politician--repeatedly asking which Washington she was really serving. Murray often countered that Mr. Rossi was not answering the moderators' questions', a common theme in both candidates answers. Jerry Cornfield, political reporter for the Everett Herald has a synopsis of the second debate online. His "scorecard" states that while Ms. Murray gained the advantage on the first debate, Mr. Rossi gained the advantage on the second.

In our last post, we discussed some of the recent polls, and that things were looking good for Murray. Post debate polling shows that the race has tightened dramatically.A McClatchy-Marist poll published today shows the candidates neck and neck, with Murray leading by one point, 48-47%. Another Public Policy Polling poll, published yesterday, indicates Murray with a two point lead, 49-47%. An important note to keep in mind is that both of these polls were conducted post-debate, which occurred last Sunday. The polls held prior to the date and discussed below gave Murray quite an edge. This seems to be in line with Jerry Cornfield's thoughts on Sunday's debate.

Stay tuned for further analysis, including a guest commentary with State Representative Mike Hope on how he believes the Senate race will affect his own campaign in the 44th legislative district.

Ballots starting to hit the mailboxes, polls look good for Murray.

As the General Election 2010 ballots start to hit mailboxes across Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is looking good in the polls for her chances at re-election. The newest of documented polls taken October 11-14 is a Survey USA today poll which has Senator Murray up by 3 percentage points. A CNN/Time poll from a few days prior has Senator Murray up by 8 points.

However, there is a bright spot for the Rossi camp. A Fox News poll conducted October 9th shows Rossi with a 1 percentage point lead, 47%-46%.

So what can we attribute the wild variations in poll findings to? The Seattle Times recently published an article relating to the variations in all of the recent polls. The basic presumption is that polls are conducted differently, and are simply a snapshot in time. For example, some polling firms use automated calling, while others use live individuals to interview the person on the other end of the line. The article additionally states that callers will be less likely to admit bias to a live person, which can sometimes skew the results.

There also appears to be less of an enthusiasm gap in Washington State compared to other states. This means that Democrats in Washington State are more excited about voting than Democrats in other states. This is a reflection on the number of Democrats that will either show up to the polls or mail back in their ballots, and presumably vote for the Democratic candidate.

There have been many hard hitting commercials coming out from both camps, including outside interest groups in recent days. This has likely led to the day-to-day variation in poll numbers. There will also be a debate occuring tonight between Patty Murray and Dino Rossi, so look forward to poll results that will inevitably be published shortly after.

Dino Rossi vs. Patty Murray: Round 1 Introductions

We want to kick off this blog with a little introduction of the 2010 Washington United States Senate race between businessman Dino Rossi and the "mom in tennis shoes" Senator Patty Murray. This race is being watched with national interest, as it is very close and commonly known to be the possible "51st vote" for a Republican majority in the United States Senate.

Dino Rossi is the Republican in this race. He is currently a commercial real estate executive. He was elected to the Washington State Senate in 1996, and worked his way up to become Chairman of the Senate Ways and Means Committee. He ran for Governor of the State of Washington twice, losing both times. In 2004, he lost the Governors race by hand recount in what became the closest Gubernatorial race in the history of the United States. He lives in Sammamish, is married to his wife Terry, and they have 4 children.

Patty Murray is the Democrat in this race. She is currently the incumbent United States Senator. Murray is currently serving her third term in office, and is a member of the Democratic leadership team. She previously served on the school board, and was elected to office in 1992. She was born in Bothell, WA, one of 7 children. She is married to her husband Rob, and they have 2 grown children.