Ballots starting to hit the mailboxes, polls look good for Murray.

As the General Election 2010 ballots start to hit mailboxes across Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is looking good in the polls for her chances at re-election. The newest of documented polls taken October 11-14 is a Survey USA today poll which has Senator Murray up by 3 percentage points. A CNN/Time poll from a few days prior has Senator Murray up by 8 points.

However, there is a bright spot for the Rossi camp. A Fox News poll conducted October 9th shows Rossi with a 1 percentage point lead, 47%-46%.

So what can we attribute the wild variations in poll findings to? The Seattle Times recently published an article relating to the variations in all of the recent polls. The basic presumption is that polls are conducted differently, and are simply a snapshot in time. For example, some polling firms use automated calling, while others use live individuals to interview the person on the other end of the line. The article additionally states that callers will be less likely to admit bias to a live person, which can sometimes skew the results.

There also appears to be less of an enthusiasm gap in Washington State compared to other states. This means that Democrats in Washington State are more excited about voting than Democrats in other states. This is a reflection on the number of Democrats that will either show up to the polls or mail back in their ballots, and presumably vote for the Democratic candidate.

There have been many hard hitting commercials coming out from both camps, including outside interest groups in recent days. This has likely led to the day-to-day variation in poll numbers. There will also be a debate occuring tonight between Patty Murray and Dino Rossi, so look forward to poll results that will inevitably be published shortly after.