Unofficial results in: Patty Murray claims victory!

Patty Murray greets diners in Seattle upon receiving call from Rossi conceding race

In her race to serve Washington State for another 6 years in the US Senate, Patty Murray has unofficially been declared the victor. Current election results can be seen here. However, counties will continue to report the final batches of ballots counted this week. This can often take some time, especially in counties like King where the majority of Washingtonians live. While the results won't change dramatically, we will likely see Patty Murray gain more votes as the larger counties finalize their ballot counting. As of now, it appears she has a pretty safe lead of about 62,000 votes. This number is far outside the .5% necessary to qualify for a recount. The article notes that Senator Murray did particularly strong with voters who have a positive view of the Federal Government, those who feel their financial situation is better than two years ago, and those who wanted Congress to focus on spending money to create jobs.

Some general themes from analyzing the election results. While he carried all counties on east of the Cascade Mountains, Dino Rossi underperformed in areas where he would have had to run strongly to win this race. This includes larger metropolitan counties such as Pierce and Snohomish. Republican candidates in statewide races need to perform significantly well in these areas to counter the large Democratic majorities typically seen in King County. Surprisingly, the trend in late ballots seemed to significantly turn Democratic. This is counter to the generally held belief and historic evidence in Washington State that late ballots tend to trend Republican. This was true all across the state, with many Republicans in legislative races who were leading on Election Night seeing their leads disappear throughout the week. What caused this? Its difficult to say. It may be due to the enthusiasm of Republican voters getting their ballots in early. It may be due to the new General Election system where voters are only allowed to select from two candidates. We haven't had this system for very long, which means historical data is sketchy at best. One thing is clear: While the rest of the country appears to have had a strong showing with Republican candidates, Washington State did not. This seems to suggest that one of the earlier articles we linked to regarding Democratic voter enthusiasm in Washington State appearing more strongly than the rest of the country.

Murray's win allows the Democratic Party to retain a tight majority in the Senate, which will now stand at 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans in the 2011 Congress. Democrats lost 6 seats in the Senate, which conversely means there were 6 successful Republican challengers. These include Senate seats in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Dakota. In the House of Representatives, it appears the Republicans have gained just over 60 seats, which means they will hold the majority in the 2011 Congress. It appears voters across the nation have sent a clear message to DC, that being we want the parties to work more closely together to solve the problems that we are facing. 2011 is already shaping up to be a dog fight between a Democratic Senate and Presidency, and a Republican House.

Murray clings to a slim lead, hundreds of thousands of ballots left to count! Updated: Murray Re-Elected

Update 7:13 pm: Senator Patty Murray has been re-elected to another 6-year term. Read Dino Rossi's concession statement here:

Let the counting commence! At the time of this posting, Senator Patty Murray appears to be in a position to win a 4th term. The Secretary of State's office has current election results, and shows Murray with 50.84% of the vote, compared to Rossi's 49.16%. These numbers will change tonight as the individual county offices report their next batches of ballots counted.

Interesting of note is that Dino Rossi has not taken the lead at any time in this race. Conventional wisdom is that with so many votes left to count in King County, he would have had to hold the lead by now to offset certain gains that will be made by Murray as King County continues to report. While it is also true that the general trend in Washington State is for late ballots to trend Republican, we'll have to wait and see how the results turn out over the next several days. One thing is certain, as we had previously suspected, this race was not decided on Election Night.

The Seattle Times notes that there are several hundred thousand votes left to be counted, but the early ballots are certainly trending in Murray's favor. A review of the results show that Rossi gained 38% of the votes in King County (Washington State's most populous county) initially, and that the later trend showed him receiving only 33% of the votes in King County. As one political scientist noted in the article, this is "devastating" to Rossi's chances of winning.

Also interesting of note is that Dino Rossi is leading in 30 of 39 Washington Counties, including every single county east of the Cascades. Murray's campaign manager noted today that in areas where Murray leads, there are approximately 523,000 ballots left to be counted, while there are 440,000 ballots left to be counted in areas where Dino Rossi leads. If this is true, it is certainly going to come down to the strength with which each candidate leads in their respective counties. Based on this interpretation, we can probably assume that Murray is pretty happy with the results.

Election Day! Get out and vote!!!

Happy Election Day everyone! Get out and exercise your constitutional right to vote!

One of your bloggers had the opportunity to meet Dino at Shawn O'Donnells today, as he made a unannounced appearance as Election Day nears (7 hours away).

*Disclaimer: This posting is not part of the mandatory postings for Pols 202. It is simply to note the arrival of Election Day.

1 day to go, down to the wire!!! Good news for Rossi?

If you are out and about today, you will probably see politicians and their supporters out sign waving as the countdown to the election draws near. Yesterday, we had the opportunity to see Dino Rossi supporters sign waving up on the Smith Island Interstate 5 crossing.

If you are sitting at home watching TV, saving yourself from the rain, you will also likely see alot of action in the Senate race--on your television! As mentioned in previous postings, groups have flooded the airwaves with last minute campaign spending. Many of you probably watched the Seahawks game yesterday, and saw a deluge of ads from Dino Rossi, Patty Murray, The National Republican/Democratic Senatorial Committees and others. Don't expect this to stop as we near Election Day tomorrow.

One of the final polls before Election Day gives Rossi a 2 point advantage, 50-48%. This poll from Public Policy Polling includes a rather large sample of over 2,000 voters, and a margin of error at 2.2%. This is some potential bad news for Murray, as Public Policy Polling is known to be a "Democratic" pollster. While both Murray and Rossi are carrying their base Democrat/Republican voters pretty well, Rossi appears to be pulling ahead significantly with independent voters  and those who have already returned their ballots. As you can see, the race continues to be tight. A poll from Fox News a few days previous gives Murray a 2 point advantage. Most of the polls continue to be within the margin of error.

As we close down this election season, your bloggers thought it would be interesting to interview someone who will also be on the ballot tomorrow, State Representative Mike Hope. Rep Hope is a freshman legislator, who is running for his second term in Olympia. He currently serves as the Snohomish County Chair for Dino Rossi's Senate campaign. Disclaimer: We do not share the same access to Senator Murray's campaign, and do not endorse or oppose either candidate.

Q: How do you see the Senate race affecting your own race?
A: It always helps to have a strong candidate at the top of the ballot. Dino has always run strongly in the 44th district, and we're running on a very similar message--let's restore fiscal sanity to our state and country. This helps bring out the voters who are going to check his name, and continue down the ballot to also check mine. Dino has excited the Republican and independent base, as well as the moderate Democratic voters who are starting to doubt President Obama's agenda.

Q: What are people saying at the doorsteps?
A: A lot of people are angry. Angry with incumbents, angry with taxes, angry with this economy. I've personally knocked on over 10,000 doors so I've heard it loud and clear. There is definitely an "anti-incumbent" mood in the electorate, which will likely help Dino. It may actually hurt me, as I've had voters say they want all incumbents in Olympia out due to the various taxes that were passed last legislative session. I have to remind them that I am not in the majority, and I did not vote for them or the budget.

Q: What are your thoughts on how the Senate race will turn out?
A: There's no doubt, its going to be close. I've been watching the polls as we near election day and its looking better and better for Dino. People are looking for someone to lead in this economic crisis, and he's done it before. He has proven he can balance a budget while still protecting vital services. When I talk with people, that's the kind of leader they are looking for. My gut tells me the race is going to be 50-50, and we won't know the winner on Election Night. Hopefully it doesn't come down to 133 votes like my last race.

Q: Final thoughts on this election?
A: Good luck to all candidates running. All those who prevail will certainly have their work cut out for them after tomorrow. I also encourage everyone to review HJR 4220, a constitutional amendment to deny bail to certain offenders under consideration of a "third strike", which is on the ballot tomorrow. This is a bill that I sponsored in response to the Lakewood Police Officers who were executed in a coffee shop.

Thank you for your time, Representative Mike Hope!