Unofficial results in: Patty Murray claims victory!

Patty Murray greets diners in Seattle upon receiving call from Rossi conceding race

In her race to serve Washington State for another 6 years in the US Senate, Patty Murray has unofficially been declared the victor. Current election results can be seen here. However, counties will continue to report the final batches of ballots counted this week. This can often take some time, especially in counties like King where the majority of Washingtonians live. While the results won't change dramatically, we will likely see Patty Murray gain more votes as the larger counties finalize their ballot counting. As of now, it appears she has a pretty safe lead of about 62,000 votes. This number is far outside the .5% necessary to qualify for a recount. The article notes that Senator Murray did particularly strong with voters who have a positive view of the Federal Government, those who feel their financial situation is better than two years ago, and those who wanted Congress to focus on spending money to create jobs.

Some general themes from analyzing the election results. While he carried all counties on east of the Cascade Mountains, Dino Rossi underperformed in areas where he would have had to run strongly to win this race. This includes larger metropolitan counties such as Pierce and Snohomish. Republican candidates in statewide races need to perform significantly well in these areas to counter the large Democratic majorities typically seen in King County. Surprisingly, the trend in late ballots seemed to significantly turn Democratic. This is counter to the generally held belief and historic evidence in Washington State that late ballots tend to trend Republican. This was true all across the state, with many Republicans in legislative races who were leading on Election Night seeing their leads disappear throughout the week. What caused this? Its difficult to say. It may be due to the enthusiasm of Republican voters getting their ballots in early. It may be due to the new General Election system where voters are only allowed to select from two candidates. We haven't had this system for very long, which means historical data is sketchy at best. One thing is clear: While the rest of the country appears to have had a strong showing with Republican candidates, Washington State did not. This seems to suggest that one of the earlier articles we linked to regarding Democratic voter enthusiasm in Washington State appearing more strongly than the rest of the country.

Murray's win allows the Democratic Party to retain a tight majority in the Senate, which will now stand at 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans in the 2011 Congress. Democrats lost 6 seats in the Senate, which conversely means there were 6 successful Republican challengers. These include Senate seats in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Dakota. In the House of Representatives, it appears the Republicans have gained just over 60 seats, which means they will hold the majority in the 2011 Congress. It appears voters across the nation have sent a clear message to DC, that being we want the parties to work more closely together to solve the problems that we are facing. 2011 is already shaping up to be a dog fight between a Democratic Senate and Presidency, and a Republican House.

Murray clings to a slim lead, hundreds of thousands of ballots left to count! Updated: Murray Re-Elected

Update 7:13 pm: Senator Patty Murray has been re-elected to another 6-year term. Read Dino Rossi's concession statement here:

Let the counting commence! At the time of this posting, Senator Patty Murray appears to be in a position to win a 4th term. The Secretary of State's office has current election results, and shows Murray with 50.84% of the vote, compared to Rossi's 49.16%. These numbers will change tonight as the individual county offices report their next batches of ballots counted.

Interesting of note is that Dino Rossi has not taken the lead at any time in this race. Conventional wisdom is that with so many votes left to count in King County, he would have had to hold the lead by now to offset certain gains that will be made by Murray as King County continues to report. While it is also true that the general trend in Washington State is for late ballots to trend Republican, we'll have to wait and see how the results turn out over the next several days. One thing is certain, as we had previously suspected, this race was not decided on Election Night.

The Seattle Times notes that there are several hundred thousand votes left to be counted, but the early ballots are certainly trending in Murray's favor. A review of the results show that Rossi gained 38% of the votes in King County (Washington State's most populous county) initially, and that the later trend showed him receiving only 33% of the votes in King County. As one political scientist noted in the article, this is "devastating" to Rossi's chances of winning.

Also interesting of note is that Dino Rossi is leading in 30 of 39 Washington Counties, including every single county east of the Cascades. Murray's campaign manager noted today that in areas where Murray leads, there are approximately 523,000 ballots left to be counted, while there are 440,000 ballots left to be counted in areas where Dino Rossi leads. If this is true, it is certainly going to come down to the strength with which each candidate leads in their respective counties. Based on this interpretation, we can probably assume that Murray is pretty happy with the results.

Election Day! Get out and vote!!!

Happy Election Day everyone! Get out and exercise your constitutional right to vote!

One of your bloggers had the opportunity to meet Dino at Shawn O'Donnells today, as he made a unannounced appearance as Election Day nears (7 hours away).

*Disclaimer: This posting is not part of the mandatory postings for Pols 202. It is simply to note the arrival of Election Day.

1 day to go, down to the wire!!! Good news for Rossi?

If you are out and about today, you will probably see politicians and their supporters out sign waving as the countdown to the election draws near. Yesterday, we had the opportunity to see Dino Rossi supporters sign waving up on the Smith Island Interstate 5 crossing.

If you are sitting at home watching TV, saving yourself from the rain, you will also likely see alot of action in the Senate race--on your television! As mentioned in previous postings, groups have flooded the airwaves with last minute campaign spending. Many of you probably watched the Seahawks game yesterday, and saw a deluge of ads from Dino Rossi, Patty Murray, The National Republican/Democratic Senatorial Committees and others. Don't expect this to stop as we near Election Day tomorrow.

One of the final polls before Election Day gives Rossi a 2 point advantage, 50-48%. This poll from Public Policy Polling includes a rather large sample of over 2,000 voters, and a margin of error at 2.2%. This is some potential bad news for Murray, as Public Policy Polling is known to be a "Democratic" pollster. While both Murray and Rossi are carrying their base Democrat/Republican voters pretty well, Rossi appears to be pulling ahead significantly with independent voters  and those who have already returned their ballots. As you can see, the race continues to be tight. A poll from Fox News a few days previous gives Murray a 2 point advantage. Most of the polls continue to be within the margin of error.

As we close down this election season, your bloggers thought it would be interesting to interview someone who will also be on the ballot tomorrow, State Representative Mike Hope. Rep Hope is a freshman legislator, who is running for his second term in Olympia. He currently serves as the Snohomish County Chair for Dino Rossi's Senate campaign. Disclaimer: We do not share the same access to Senator Murray's campaign, and do not endorse or oppose either candidate.

Q: How do you see the Senate race affecting your own race?
A: It always helps to have a strong candidate at the top of the ballot. Dino has always run strongly in the 44th district, and we're running on a very similar message--let's restore fiscal sanity to our state and country. This helps bring out the voters who are going to check his name, and continue down the ballot to also check mine. Dino has excited the Republican and independent base, as well as the moderate Democratic voters who are starting to doubt President Obama's agenda.

Q: What are people saying at the doorsteps?
A: A lot of people are angry. Angry with incumbents, angry with taxes, angry with this economy. I've personally knocked on over 10,000 doors so I've heard it loud and clear. There is definitely an "anti-incumbent" mood in the electorate, which will likely help Dino. It may actually hurt me, as I've had voters say they want all incumbents in Olympia out due to the various taxes that were passed last legislative session. I have to remind them that I am not in the majority, and I did not vote for them or the budget.

Q: What are your thoughts on how the Senate race will turn out?
A: There's no doubt, its going to be close. I've been watching the polls as we near election day and its looking better and better for Dino. People are looking for someone to lead in this economic crisis, and he's done it before. He has proven he can balance a budget while still protecting vital services. When I talk with people, that's the kind of leader they are looking for. My gut tells me the race is going to be 50-50, and we won't know the winner on Election Night. Hopefully it doesn't come down to 133 votes like my last race.

Q: Final thoughts on this election?
A: Good luck to all candidates running. All those who prevail will certainly have their work cut out for them after tomorrow. I also encourage everyone to review HJR 4220, a constitutional amendment to deny bail to certain offenders under consideration of a "third strike", which is on the ballot tomorrow. This is a bill that I sponsored in response to the Lakewood Police Officers who were executed in a coffee shop.

Thank you for your time, Representative Mike Hope!

Voter turnout looks good in Snohomish County, last minute money being spent.

As of yesterday, 71,598 voters, 18.9% of Snohomish County voters have already returned their ballots. The article also states that King County is averaging a little lower than expected, with 15.29% returned so far. “I think it is reflective of the excitement of this particular election,” said Snohomish County Auditor Carolyn Weikel. While the Senate race is state-wide, we'll have to watch and see if this strong trend from our home county continues across the rest of the state. Important of note: If past trends hold, Dino Rossi will need a very strong turnout on the east side of the state to offset what will most certainly be a strong advantage for Senator Murray in King County. Both Patty Murray and Dino Rossi carried Snohomish County in their respective 1994 races, Murray with 54.89% and Rossi with 49.88%.

As promised, Michelle Obama came to town on Monday to support Senator Murray. First Lady Michelle spoke at the Bellevue Hyatt to aprpoximately 1400 people who paid between $75-175 per person to attend. Later, she spoke at the home of Jeff Brotman, to 100 people who paid $7,500 each to attend. While we would have loved to attend and offer a first hand account of the private fundraiser, we we're not invited.

On the same day First lady Michelle came to town, Senator John McCain, someone who is notable for his stance against Federal earmarks, held a conference call with reporters in support of Mr. Rossi. McCain was on the call to support Rossi's stance that Senator Murray's "pork barrel" politics are not good for the taxpayer, with McCain calling Federal earmarks a "corrupt practice". Directed at Senator Murray, Rossi has stated in the past "I just don't think this is the year to be talking about port. What part of broke don't you understand"?

Certainly, one group that isn't broke is the independent expenditure groups that are participating in the Rossi-Murray Senate race. A recent Seattle Times article notes that there has been $12M in independent spending in this race. This is the 3rd highest Senate race for independent expenditures in this election cycle, with only Colorado and Pennsylvania being higher. Both the Democratic and Republican National Senatorial Committees have spent nearly $3M each in this hotly contested race. As we come closer to election day, don't expect the ads to get any nicer.

9 days to go...The money continues to pour in!

As part of a three state West-coast campaign swing, President Barack Obama came to town last Thursday to raise money for Patty Murray. CNN notes that the focus of the campaign swing is to "prop up embattled Senate incumbents" in Washington, California, and Nevada. This is in addition to a visit from former President Clinton a few days prior. The event drew a large number of Patty Murray supporters, as well as a few protestors (and Dino Rossi supporters, as the President spoke to roughly 10,000 at the University of Washington basketball arena. The articles are unclear on how much money Ms. Murray was expected to raise, but suffice it so say it is safely in the tens of thousands of dollars.

First Lady Michelle Obama will also be coming to Bellevue today to campaign for Patty Murray. The Murray campaign also released that Jill Biden, wife of Vice-President Joe Biden, will soon be coming to town to campaign for Murray. These continued visits by members of the Washington D.C. Democratic establishment seems to play right into the campaign message of Dino Rossi, that being Senator Murray represents Washington D.C and not Washington State. Mr. Rossi has released a new YouTube video to this effect, titled "Washington D.C insiders vs. the Real Washington"

There has also been some good news for the Dino Rossi camp in the last few days. Mr. Rossi picked up the endorsement of The Council of Metropolitan Police and Sheriffs. COMPAS represents the two largest law enforcement agencies in Washington State, the Seattle Police Department and the King County Sheriffs Department. They also represent the Seattle Police Management Association.

Additionally, there is news that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce made a $500,000 television buy last Friday. While it is not clear who this television buy will be used to support or oppose, it is highly likely that it will be in Mr. Rossi's favor. The Chamber is strongly against financial reform legislation, health care reform, and "cap and trade", all positions shared by Mr. Rossi. Stay tuned to your television sets in the next 9 days to see sme hard hitting campaign commercials as the election comes to a close.

Senate debates are completed, polls tightening! Murray brings in the "big guns"

Its been a busy week for Patty Murray and Dino Rossi. Upon the completion of their final debate last Sunday, Bill Clinton flew into Paine Field to rally the Democratic troops for Murray. Murray will also be welcoming President Obama and First Lady Michelle to campaign on her behalf in the next few weeks. Mr. Rossi vowed during the debate to continue traveling across meeting with the voters, slamming Murray for the visits from Washington DC bigwigs.

We had the opportunity to watch the debate last Sunday, and it was clear that Mr. Rossi came prepared to attack. This was noticeably absent on their first debate in Spokane. While Ms. Murray was clearly more calm and poised, Mr. Rossi was firing on all cylinders, attacking Murray as a career politician--repeatedly asking which Washington she was really serving. Murray often countered that Mr. Rossi was not answering the moderators' questions', a common theme in both candidates answers. Jerry Cornfield, political reporter for the Everett Herald has a synopsis of the second debate online. His "scorecard" states that while Ms. Murray gained the advantage on the first debate, Mr. Rossi gained the advantage on the second.

In our last post, we discussed some of the recent polls, and that things were looking good for Murray. Post debate polling shows that the race has tightened dramatically.A McClatchy-Marist poll published today shows the candidates neck and neck, with Murray leading by one point, 48-47%. Another Public Policy Polling poll, published yesterday, indicates Murray with a two point lead, 49-47%. An important note to keep in mind is that both of these polls were conducted post-debate, which occurred last Sunday. The polls held prior to the date and discussed below gave Murray quite an edge. This seems to be in line with Jerry Cornfield's thoughts on Sunday's debate.

Stay tuned for further analysis, including a guest commentary with State Representative Mike Hope on how he believes the Senate race will affect his own campaign in the 44th legislative district.

Ballots starting to hit the mailboxes, polls look good for Murray.

As the General Election 2010 ballots start to hit mailboxes across Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is looking good in the polls for her chances at re-election. The newest of documented polls taken October 11-14 is a Survey USA today poll which has Senator Murray up by 3 percentage points. A CNN/Time poll from a few days prior has Senator Murray up by 8 points.

However, there is a bright spot for the Rossi camp. A Fox News poll conducted October 9th shows Rossi with a 1 percentage point lead, 47%-46%.

So what can we attribute the wild variations in poll findings to? The Seattle Times recently published an article relating to the variations in all of the recent polls. The basic presumption is that polls are conducted differently, and are simply a snapshot in time. For example, some polling firms use automated calling, while others use live individuals to interview the person on the other end of the line. The article additionally states that callers will be less likely to admit bias to a live person, which can sometimes skew the results.

There also appears to be less of an enthusiasm gap in Washington State compared to other states. This means that Democrats in Washington State are more excited about voting than Democrats in other states. This is a reflection on the number of Democrats that will either show up to the polls or mail back in their ballots, and presumably vote for the Democratic candidate.

There have been many hard hitting commercials coming out from both camps, including outside interest groups in recent days. This has likely led to the day-to-day variation in poll numbers. There will also be a debate occuring tonight between Patty Murray and Dino Rossi, so look forward to poll results that will inevitably be published shortly after.

Dino Rossi vs. Patty Murray: Round 1 Introductions

We want to kick off this blog with a little introduction of the 2010 Washington United States Senate race between businessman Dino Rossi and the "mom in tennis shoes" Senator Patty Murray. This race is being watched with national interest, as it is very close and commonly known to be the possible "51st vote" for a Republican majority in the United States Senate.

Dino Rossi is the Republican in this race. He is currently a commercial real estate executive. He was elected to the Washington State Senate in 1996, and worked his way up to become Chairman of the Senate Ways and Means Committee. He ran for Governor of the State of Washington twice, losing both times. In 2004, he lost the Governors race by hand recount in what became the closest Gubernatorial race in the history of the United States. He lives in Sammamish, is married to his wife Terry, and they have 4 children.

Patty Murray is the Democrat in this race. She is currently the incumbent United States Senator. Murray is currently serving her third term in office, and is a member of the Democratic leadership team. She previously served on the school board, and was elected to office in 1992. She was born in Bothell, WA, one of 7 children. She is married to her husband Rob, and they have 2 grown children.